Was it hot in 2022? The forecast is that the climate will be warmer in 2023. According to the United Kingdom's Met Office meteorological service, this will be one of the hottest years on record.
The increase in the global average temperature for the year is predicted to be between 1.08°C and 1.32°C above the average of the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), against the range of 1.02°C to 1. 27°C recorded in 2022. Therefore, for the tenth consecutive year, thermometers must register at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
The explanation for this is that this year an unusual weather pattern comes to an end, which had a cooling effect on the planet and lasted three years. During this period there was a prolonged La Niña, according to the Met Office.
A La Nina large-scale cools ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and changes tropical atmospheric circulation. Therefore, it generally has the opposite impact of El Niño and causes a temporary global cooling effect.
Even with the increase in temperature in 2023, the observatory team does not predict a year as hot as 2016, the hottest recorded since 1850. “The year 2016 was an El Niño, and the global temperature was driven by warming waters in parts of the tropical Pacific,” explains Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office.
“Without a preceding El Niño to increase global temperatures, 2023 may not be a record year, but with the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace, it is likely to be another notable year in the series.”
The eight hottest years on record
This series of warmer years began in 2014, when global temperatures began to surpass the 1°C mark above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). As global temperatures are rising, it is necessary to act quickly to keep the global average temperature below 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
The last eight years have been the hottest on record, points out the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to the entity, this is due to the fact that we have increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and accumulated heat.
“In 2022, we face several dramatic climate disasters. Large areas of Pakistan were flooded, with great economic losses and human casualties. Record heat waves have been observed in China, Europe, North America and South America. The long drought in the Horn of Africa threatens a humanitarian catastrophe,” said Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas.
The beginning of 2023 is already warmer in the Northern Hemisphere. Even in winter, some regions have a milder climate, atypical for this time of year, according to the WMO, and European countries recorded temperatures above 20°C. Additionally, national and local temperature records were broken in several countries, from Spain to the east of the continent, in December and January.
